Bell Bottom opened last Thursday and it put the industry into depression as it sunk in collections were not going to come. In reality this was not that Godzilla Vs Kong moment in March when you knew the game was up for the time being when this HIT film recorded lesser numbers than Roohi and Mumbai Saga in practically all the Hindi film circuits.  

As the understanding of the numbers in terms of the content of Bell Bottom became to be known the depression become more of a dilemma as to where to go from here. The two big South films which had potential to collect in Hindi circuits RRR and KGF 2 swiftly moved to next year obviously worried about the state of the market due to the Bell Bottom results. There is Pushpa (Telugu) coming on Christmas with Hindi but after a good trailer they put a song out and that basically spells it out that is a Telugu film which means it will be a huge struggle for initial collections in Hindi circuits outside Maharashtra.

The numbers of Bell Bottom are poor but if some number crunching is done they are not as bad as they appear. The Hindi market is operating at around 40% open at present and that too with 50% occupancy. If we take out this occupancy rule then Bell Bottom would have opened to a 4 crore nett number on a 40% operational market which gives a better look to it. If it opened in March 2020 with 100% occupancy and Maharashtra open then it would have been in the 5.75-6 crore nett range.

Despite the poor numbers there were plusses as some areas collected well. Delhi / NCR saw decent numbers as this area does not have many cinemas which are still shut. The collections in Delhi NCR are probably 60% less than what the film would have done in a normal situation. This was with 50% occupancy rule and very limited night shows which are crucial for the NCR market.

East Punjab also had healthy collections as this circuit is ahead of other circuits in terms of opening up cinemas as Punjabi films had released before with Tunka Tunka doing average business and Puaada doing very well and Bell Bottom beneffited from that. This can be seen by the 16% ratio of East Punjab which is very high even if we take it that Maharashtra was not there. On top the film is hardly for East Punjab market as its devoid of grandeur and scale and there is no North feel in the film which boosts collections in East Punjab.

Then there was Gujarat / Saurashtra which was phenomenal on Sunday considering the situation. Gujarat has a stronger Hindi film watching culture than most of the other circuits and the audience came out in numbers on Sunday. The holiday factor helped but it has to be noted that a film like Bell Bottom would not have collected much more on a regular Sunday in the same cinemas in normal times than it did on Raksha Bandhan post the pandemic.

There was the flipside as UP,  Central India and East India (barring Kolkata) remain in the doldrums with disaster collections while South also was very bad. But its a process and South will take care of itself as they have their own films and Hindi films hardly matter there. UP like Gujarat also has a strong Hindi film watching culture probably the highest in the country but it does not have the infrastructure of Gujarat which has grown in leaps and bounds in the last 20 years while UP has not seen that. Still this market should be back up as more cinemas open and the right film opens with awareness of a cinema release. Simply put all the circuits are not going back to optimum together and some will take years due to cinema closures.

The right film for UP, Central India and Bihar is going to be Sooryavanshi but the question is when can this film come. The cinemas in Maharashtra are likely to be allowed to open mid September as long as there is not another covid19 surge. The perfect result would be Sooryavanshi opening on Diwali across India with no capacity restrictions and there is no doubt the collections would be good on the Diwali period as its the correct film for Diwali. If you had a choice to release a film like Sooryavanshi on any date it would be Diwali. Golmaal 4 and Housefull 4 saw record business in Gujarat / Saurashtra (outside Bahubali - The Conclusion) and going by Bell Bottom on Raksha Bandhan it would be no surprise if Sooryavanshi tops Golmaal 4 and Housefull 4 in the circuit content permitting.

The issue facing the makers will be the 50% occupancy rule as all circuits will be open by then as long as there are no new lockdowns and restrictions but its quite likely that 50% occupancy rule will be around in many places and very likely in Maharashtra. This rule hits the industry hard as a huge bulk of the collections come in the period of post 3pm when occupancy is far better. Only a few big films have collections spread well through the day and Sooryavanshi will be one of them but will the makers settle for 6pm shows collecting 50k when it would be 1lk if full occupancy is allowed.

Sooryavanshi has suffered the most through covid19 as the costs pile up but there could be no better time than Diwali for this film to release but will the gods be kind and allow it to release on Diwali. Hopefully all the circuits remain open on Diwali and then the decison will have to be do we release with 50% occupancy rules in places.  If god is very kind then maybe there will be no occupancy rules in early Novemeber but that is probably hoping for too much.

If Sooryavanshi does not make it on Diwali there is a chance that the Shahid Kapoor starrer Jersey may come (covid19 permitting) and that will have a chance to bring back the audience in large numbers though obviously not at the level of Sooryavanshi.