Gangubai Kathiawadi will be the first big release in the third attempt to get cinemas going again and it will be all about how Mumbai circuit performs as it is likley to contribute 40-45% of the all india business. The advance for the film opened yesterday but nothing much happened there but advances are going to be an issue for most films outside Hollywood tent poles films. 

It will be Hollywood tent poles leading the adavnce figures as there is huge demand for the premium tickets when these films come. This does not mean the best openings will be Hollywood as Hindi films will be far stronger in current on day of release. Gangubai Kathiawadi will also be depending on current.

The plus for Gangubai Kathiawadi is that Maharashtra (with 50% occupancy) and Gujarat have performed very well post the pandemic and the two successfull films in Hindi so far Sooryavanshi and Pushpa (Hindi) have been driven by these areas. Basically if Maharashtra is allowed 100% occupancy then Mumbai circuit would be pretty much as per pre covid19 with the slight lag in Mumbai city which is underperforming. 

Sanjay Leela Bhansali films have a history of doing better in Mumbai circuit from Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam (1999) to Goliyon Ki Raasleela Ram Leela (2013) to Bajirao Mastani (2015) with the exceptions being Devdas (2002) which had Shahrukh Khan at the peak of his superstardom and Padmaavat which was a more universal looking film and had a huge controversy around it.

There have been only a few heroines in history of Hindi cinema who have had some sort of initial clout as far as box office goes and although Alia Bhatt is not in that league she is the only one today with some box office pull. It is mainly confined to Mumbai city and Pune but both these cities outperform or do more than they should comparatively when Alia Bhatt is there in a film. This can be seen with films like Two States, Raazi and Dear Zindagi so this another positive for Mumbai circuit. 

Gangubai Kathiawadi has regional flavour for Mumbai and then on top there is Sanjay Leela Bhansali and Alia Bhatt who perform well here so the chances are going to better in this circuit. If the film can score a 40 crore nett plus number in Mumbai then it will be through but for this it cant be just a metro film for Mumbai city and Pune it will have to perform in the A centres also like Surat, Nasik, Rajkot etc. Also the HITS so far Sooryavanshi and Pushpa were driven by the likes of Surat and Nasik.

The film may also be aided by Overseas as well where Sanjay Leela Bhansali films traditionally do very well especially North America.