Mirzapur is heading for a fantastic first day of around 24-25 crore nett as per early estimates making it the fourth highest opening for a Hindi film this year after Dhurandhar 2, Toxic and Border 2. The film will beat the numbers of Awaarapan 2 by around 10-15% though its the holiday factor taking it above Awarapan 2 and it has a wider release. On fair value the collections are probably less than Awarapan 2.

The film will have a similar sort of performance to Awarapan 2 in the circuits as well with Delhi / UP does better than Mumbai circuit. The collections in Delhi / UP may hit the 7 crore nett mark while Bihar is also outstanding. This is not the usual for a film from Excel Entertainment where its about Mumbai and South mainly but this is a rural film with a UP ambience.

Bihar may well turn out to be stand out but that will be known in the morning. Last week Toxic set a new first day record in the circuit beating all the sequel films like Pushpa 2, Gadar 2 and KGF 2. The circuit has seen a few good multiplexes come up over the last few months and that means higher collections now but the potential still remain smore in the circuit if more multiplexes come.

The back to back initials of Awarapan 2, Toxic and now Mirzapur should be a big boost for industry. Where an how these films go after is not so important as likeability or non likeability is an unknown but as long as the public comes initially it should give the film industry confidence in theatrical returns.